investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：csrclicense[2012]no.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期期货货国国际化际研化究研|究citi|c中fu信tur期es货in研ter究na所tionianltrerensaetaiorcnhal2022042-51/00-10/914 中国期货每日简报 chinafuturesdailynote 桂晨曦guichenxi从业资格号qualificationno：f3023159投资咨询号consultingno.：z0013632 citicfuturesinternationalresearchenglishwebsite：https://inst.citicsf.com/en 摘要abstract 能化板块维持活跃，多头情绪偏强。原油因美新一轮对俄制裁公布而上涨，燃油和沥青应声走强。氧化铝因多地产能释放而供需转宽，盘面暂时下行。宏观层面，12月美元计进出口显著提高，跨资本市场开放合作战略相继落地，我国积极推动社会融资环境的进一步宽松，致力于实现高质量经济发展。 theenergyandchemicalsectorremainsactive,withbullishsentimentprevailing.crudeoilpricesrosefollowingtheannouncementofanewroundofu.s.sanctionsonrussia,whichinturnledtostrengthinfueloilandasphalt.aluminapricesareunderpressureduetothereleaseofnewcapacityinmultipleregions,causingashifttowardsaloosersupply-demandbalance. onthemacroeconomicfront,u.s.dollar-denominatedimportsandexportssawanotableincreaseindecember,whilestrategiesforcross-capitalmarketopennessandcooperationhavebeenprogressivelyimplemented.chinaisactivelyworkingtofurthereasethesocialfinancingenvironmentandiscommittedtoachievinghigh-qualityeconomicdevelopment. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness.theopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.thecompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasformalclientsonlyduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthisreport. 1.中国期货chinafutures 1.1整体行情概述overview 能源化工板块较活跃，合成橡胶、燃油、原油等品种涨幅超过5%，且伴随5%以上的增仓，显示多头情绪强烈；农产品与金属板块波动有限，涨跌幅多集中于±2%区间。 theenergyandchemicalsectorremainedrelativelyactive,withsyntheticrubber,fueloil,andcrudeoilpostinggainsexceeding5%,accompaniedbyanopeninterestincreaseofover5%,indicatingstrongbullishsentiment.incontrast,theagriculturalproductsandmetalssectorsexperiencedlimitedfluctuations,withpricemovementsmostlyconfinedwithinthe±2%range. 图表1：品种涨跌幅和持仓变化priceandpositionchanges source:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearch 图表1：2025/1/13中国期货主力合约涨幅前十 chinafuturespricetop10dailyrise 图表2：2025/1/13中国期货主力合约跌幅前十 chinafuturespricetop10dailydrop 8.0% 7.0% sse50 index: csi300 index: shfe tsr20:silver: aluminumoxide: cotton: 5-year 10-year csi1000 index: 2-year 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% 2501 2503 2503 2502 2502 2505 cgb:2503cgb:2503 2503 cgb:2503 source:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearchsource:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearch 2 1.2上涨重点品种dailyrise 1.2.1原油crudeoil 2025/1/13原油2502今日大幅跳空高开，早盘快速冲高突破6%涨幅后高位震荡整理，涨幅显著扩大，显示市场情绪偏强，且多头资金积极进场，成交量同步放大，短期市场趋势延续强势。今日涨幅7%，近一月涨幅11.9%。 onjanuary13,2025,thecrudeoil(2502)contractopenedsignificantlyhigherwithalargegapup.intheearlysession,pricessurgedrapidly,breakingthrougha6%gainbeforeconsolidatingatelevatedlevels.thegainsexpandednotably,indicatingstrongmarketsentiment,withbullishcapitalactivelyenteringthemarket.tradingvolumeincreasedsimultaneously,suggestingrobustshort-termmarketmomentum.asoftoday,thecontractposteda7%gain,withacumulativeincreaseof11.9%overthepastmonth. 地缘矛盾与改善的市场预期主导油价上涨。1）特朗普交易对油价负面干扰消退。市场主流舆论认为特朗普能源政策较难在短时间释放美国供应，此前油市悲观情绪边际改善。国际油价近期亦与美国油气etf重现正相关关系，也能证明特朗普交易对油价的影响短期消退。后续重点关注特朗普能源政策公布。2）美国财政部宣布新一轮对俄罗斯制裁，国际油价应声大涨。制裁可能会影响到印度和中国炼厂对俄罗斯原油的进口，从而不得不从中东或其他地区寻找油源。 geopoliticaltensionsandimprovedmarketexpectationshaveprimarilydriventherecentsurgeinoilprices: 1)trumptradeimpactonoilpricesdiminishes.themarketconsensussuggeststhattrump'senergypoliciesmaynotsignificantlyincreaseu.s.supplyintheshortterm,leadingtoamarginalimprovementinpreviouslybearishmarketsentiment.additionally,therecentrestorationofapositivecorrelationbetweeninternationaloilpricesandu.s.oil&gasetfsfurtherindicatestheshort-termdissipationofthe"trumptrade"effectonoilprices.movingforward,attentionshouldbefocusedontheformalannouncementoftrump'senergypolicies. 2)newu.ssanctionsonrussia.theu.s.treasurydepartmentrecentlyannouncedanewroundofsanctionsagainstrussia,triggeringasharpriseininternationaloilprices.thesanctionscouldpotentiallydisruptrussiancrudeoilimportsforindianandchineserefineries,forcingthemtoseekalternativesuppliesfromthemiddleeastorotherregions. 3 图表3：美十年国债收益率单位：%rorofus10-yeartreasurybill(%) 图表4：原油2502分时图(2025/1/13)crudeoil2502intradaypricemovement 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2020-01-022021-01-02 -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% source:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearchsource:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearch 1.2.2燃油fueloil 2025/1/13燃油2503今日大幅高开，早盘迅速拉升后维持高位，市场情绪偏强。今日涨幅7.0%，近一月涨幅9.0%。 onjanuary13,2025,thefueloil(2503)contractopenedsignificantlyhigherandmaintainedelevatedlevelsafterarapidsurgeduringtheearlysession,reflectingstrongmarketsentiment.thecontractposteda7.0%gaintoday,withacumulativeincreaseof9.0%overthepastmonth. 原油价格与供需因素共同推动燃油走强。1）原油走强带动燃油盘面上涨。美国财政部对俄新一轮制裁后国际原油价格应声上涨，带动下游燃油走强；2）船用需求持续提升后高硫燃油估值偏高。低硫燃油船用需求持续回落，科威特发电需求回落、低碳燃料持续冲击低硫燃油份额近期低高硫燃油价差持续回落处于偏低估位置。随着地缘降温船舶绕行减少，鹿特丹低硫销量有望大幅修复，叠加低硫燃油产量低位，低硫燃油利好逐步出现。 crudeoilpriceandsupply-demandfactorshavejoin