investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：csrclicense[2012]no.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期期货货国国际化际研化究研|究citi|c中fu信tur期es货in研ter究na所tionianltrerensaetaiorcnhal2022042-51/00-10/923 中国期货每日简报 chinafuturesdailynote 桂晨曦guichenxi从业资格号qualificationno：f3023159投资咨询号consultingno.：z0013632 citicfuturesinternationalserviceplatform：https://inst.citicsf.com/en 摘要abstract onjanuary22,thescfis(europe)maintaineditsstrongperformance,risingby12.4%,whilesomeenergyandmetalsmaterialssawslightdeclines,withlsfodroppingby2.1%. inthemacroeconomiccontext,thechinesepeople'spoliticalconsultativeconference(cppcc)heldamacroeconomicanalysismeeting,emphasizingpolicyadjustments,reformimplementation,industrialupgrading,andconsumptionpromotion.chinaissuedguidelinestopromoteinternationalfinancialopennessandfacilitatetheentryoflong-termcapitalintothemarket. 1月22日，集运维持前日强势表现盘面继续上行，涨幅12.4%；部分能化及金属新材料商品小幅下跌，低硫燃油跌幅-2.1%。 宏观方面，全国政协召开宏观经济形势分析座谈会，提出推动政策调控、改革落地、产业升级和消费提振等举措。证期方面，中国发布推动金融领域国际化开放的意见，并促进中长期资金入市。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness.theopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.citicfutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthisreport. 1.期货异动chinafutures 1.1行情概述overview onjanuary22,thescfis(europe)maintaineditsstrongperformance,risingby12.4%,whilesomeenergyandmetalsmaterialssawslightdeclines. 1月22日，集运维持前日强势表现盘面继续上行，涨幅12.4%；部分能化及金属新材料商品小幅下跌。 图表1：品种涨跌幅和持仓变化priceandpositionchanges 20% openinterestchange sp sh ih10%au pb ifsm aag ec -4%-2% pjlmjjdstycsewbrfg0%iscivcrwrjlzpubrcmihum siacmbsltcftl runrjfb pph0cc�g pxrablaojbprirm ur 2%4%6%8% tmaeab cyss furslh bbsi brlgsm pricechange pg-10%lu pf sf pk -20%ao financialfutures metals energy&chemicals agriculturals ni -30% sn -40% abbreviationsarepresentedinthischart.forfullnames,pleaserefertotable11.chinafuturesprice. 图表1：2025/1/22中国期货主力合约涨幅前十 chinafuturespricetop10dailyrise 图表2：2025/1/22中国期货主力合约跌幅前十 chinafuturespricetop10dailydrop 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% source:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearchsource:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearch 2 1.2上涨重点品种dailyrise 1.2.1欧线集运scfis(europe) onjanuary22,scfis(europe)2504maintainedstrongperformancefromyesterday'ssession,openinghigherandconsolidatingbeforesurgingagainneartheclosetofinishatahigh,withadailygainof12.4%. keyfactorstowatchincludetariffexpectationsandpotentialceasefireplans.itisanticipatedthatthemaincontractwillcontinuetoexperiencevolatility. 1)whilepresidenttrumphasnotyetimposedtariffs,theexpectationremains.trumpplanstoimposea25%tariffoncanadaandmexicostartingfebruary1,whilealsoengagingintariffnegotiationswithchina.giventhe75-daydeadlinefortiktoktosell,withtariffspotentiallyusedasabargainingchip,the04contractmaycontinuetobedrivenbyexportsurgeexpectations. 2)long-termcontractsshowpotentialforareturntoservice.sincetakingoffice,trumphasfocusedonissuesrelatedtoiranandthemiddleeast,withaceasefirenegotiationexpectedtobegininearlyfebruary,potentiallyspurringreturn-to-serviceexpectationsforlong-termcontracts.however,iftensionsescalate,thelong-termcontractmayseeacorrectionofitsdiscount. 1月22日，欧线集运2504维持昨日强势盘面表现，高开后震荡整理，临近收盘时再次上涨并收于高位，日涨幅12.4%。 关税预期和停战计划值得关注，预计主力合约继续震荡。1）特朗普未即可征收关税，但预期仍存。特朗普计划于2月1日对加墨征收25%关税，并开展与中国关税谈判；在75天tiktok不卖就禁的法例生效期限、并以关税作为谈判筹码的情况之下，04合约或仍受抢出口预期逻辑推动。2）远月合约存复航预期。特朗普上台后关注伊朗与中东问题，预计2月初启动停火谈判，带来远月复航预期；若冲突加剧，远月合约可能修复贴水。 图表3：欧线集运各合约价格变动（元） scfis(europe)contractpricechanges(yuan) 图表4：2025/1/22欧线集运2504合约分时图 scfis(europe)contract2504intradayprice scfis(europe)2502scfis(europe)2504scfis(europe)2506scfis(europe)2508scfis(europe)2510scfis(europe)2512 2,350.0 2,150.0 1,950.0 1,750.0 1,550.0 1,350.0 1,150.0 950.0 source:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearchsource:ifind,citicfuturesinternationalresearch 3 1.2.2纸浆woodpulp onjanuary22,woodpulp2503experiencedstrongupwardmomentumafteradayofconsolidation,closingatahighwithagainof1.8%. thepost-holidayrestockinglogiccontinuestodriveupwardexpectationsforthemarket. 1)thedepreciationofthermbandrisingtaxpriceshavelimitedthedownwardtrendofthefuturesmarket.whilerestockingbeforethechinesenewyearisnearingcompletion,creatingshort-termbearishpressure,thedeclinehasbeenrestrainedbyrisingimportpricesandtheimpactofrmbdepreciation,whichhaspushedupthelandedcostofimports,thuslimitingfurtherdownsideforthefuturesmarket. 2)lookingahead,marchandaprilarepeakdemandperiodsdomestically,andtherestockinglogicfollowingthechinesenewyearalignswiththe"goldenmarchandsilverapril"replenishmenttrend.therefore,woodpulpfuturesareexpectedtoshowshort-termconsolidation,butwithabiastowardsimprovementinthefuture. 1月22日，纸浆2503全天震荡后强势拉升，尾盘收于高位，涨幅达1.8%。 节后补货逻辑带来盘面上行预期。1）人民币贬值与税价上行限制盘面回落。春节前备货趋于收尾，短期形成利空。但在回落过程中，由于进口报价以及人民币贬值的出现，进口完税价的上行，又限制了期货盘面的下行空间。2）远期来看，3~4月是国内需求旺季，春节后会接续金三银四逻辑补货逻辑。因此，纸浆预计短期呈现震荡格局，但未来偏向好转。 图表5：纸浆期货价格（元） woodpulpfuturesprice(yuan) 图表6：202