[中信期货]：中国期货每日简报 -尊龙凯时人生就博

investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：csrclicense2012no669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期期货货国国际化际研化究研究citic中fu信tur期es货in研ter究na所tionianltrerensaetaiorcnhal2022042510050931 中国期货每日简报 chinafuturesdailynote 桂晨曦guichenxi从业资格号qualificationno：f3023159投资咨询号consultingno：z0013632 citicfuturesinternationalserviceplatform：httpsinternationalserviceciticsfcom 摘要abstract macronewsustreasurysecretarysaystradetalkswithchinaaresomewhatstalled futurespricesonmay30thequityindexfuturesfellwhilecgbfuturesrosemostcommoditiesdeclinedwhileagriculturalfuturesroseandenergychemicalfuturesfell commentarygoldpvclithiumcarbonate risksmacroeconomicfluctuationsgeopoliticalsituationsandreversalsinpolicytrends 宏观方面：美财长称与中国的贸易谈判“有点停滞” 期货方面：5月30日，股指期货下跌，国债期货上涨；商品期货跌多，农产品上涨，能化下跌。今日点评：黄金、pvc、碳酸锂 风险提示：宏观经济波动、地缘政治变化、政策趋向扭转。 recentcommentary近期点评 【20250530】ironorecrudeoilcokingcoal铁矿石、原油、焦煤 【20250529】rbdpalmoleinrapeseedmealpolysilicon棕榈油、菜粕、橡胶 【20250528】lithiumcarbonatepolysiliconsiliconmetal碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅 clickonthehyperlinkofreporttitlestoreadhistoricalreports 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinesstheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneciticfutureswillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthisreport content目录 1chinafutures期货异动4 11overview行情概述4 12dailyrise上涨品种5 121gold黄金5 122pvc6 123lithiumcarbonate碳酸锂7 2chinanews中国要闻8 21macronews宏观新闻8 22industrynews行业要闻8 2 graphs图表 图表1：chinafuturespricetop10dailyrise4 中国期货主力连续合约涨幅前十4 图表2：chinafuturespricetop10dailydrop4 中国期货主力连续合约跌幅前十4 图表3：therecenttrendofgold5 黄金价格近期处于宽幅震荡5 图表4：530goldincreasedby075 5月30日，黄金上涨075 图表5：therecenttrendofpvc6 pvc价格整体呈震荡下跌，期间有短暂反弹6 图表6：530pvcincreasedby066 5月30日，pvc上涨066 图表7：therecenttrendoflithiumcarbonate7 碳酸锂价格持续走低，下跌趋势明显7 图表8：530lithiumcarbonateincreasedby127 5月30日，碳酸锂上涨127 图表9：thechangeoffuturespricesandopeninterests9 中国期货涨跌幅与持仓变化9 图表10：chinafuturesprice10 中国期货概览10 图表11：chinafuturesnighttradingprice11 中国期货夜盘概览11 图表12：中信期货国际化研究系列报告12 citicfuturesinternationalserviceplatform12 3 1chinafutures期货异动 11overview行情概述 onmay30thequityindexfuturesfellwhilecgbfuturesrosemostcommoditiesdeclinedwhileagriculturalfuturesroseandenergychemicalfuturesfell thetopthreegainersarefiberboardpolysiliconandrapeseedmealfiberboardroseby50withitsopeninterestdecreasingby917monthonmonthpolysiliconincreasedby14withopeninterestdown11monthonmonthandrapeseedmealadvancedby12withopeninterestdecreasingby14monthonmonth thetopthreedeclinersarecokingcoalfueloilandtsr20cokingcoaldroppedby53withitsopeninterestincreasingby23monthonmonthfueloildeclinedby49withopeninterestup55monthonmonthandtsr20fellby47withopeninterestdecreasingby52monthonmonth 5月30日，股指期货下跌，国债期货上涨；商品期货涨少跌多，农产品上涨，能化下跌。 涨幅前三的品种是纤维板、多晶硅和菜籽粕，其中纤维板上涨50，持仓环比减少917；多晶硅上涨14，持仓环比减少11；菜籽粕上涨12，持仓环比减少14。 跌幅前三的品种是焦煤、燃料油和20号胶，其中焦煤下跌53，持仓环比增加23；燃料油下跌49，持仓环比增加55；20号胶下跌47，持仓环比减少52。 图表1：chinafuturespricetop10dailyrise 中国期货主力连续合约涨幅前十 图表2：chinafuturespricetop10dailydrop 中国期货主力连续合约跌幅前十 00102030405060 cokingcoal 53 fiberboardpolysiliconrapeseedmeallithiumcarbonate nickelegggoldlivehog polyvinylchloride 30yearcgb 14 12 12 11 08 07 06 06 06 50 fueloiltsr20lsfo naturalrubber crudeoil tinlpg coke bitumen 49 47 33 31 30 29 28 21 18 60504030201000 sourceifindciticfuturessourceifindciticfutures 4 12dailyrise上涨品种 121gold黄金 onmay30goldincreasedby07to7718yuangram interwovenfactorsofbullsandbearsareaffectingthepreciousmetalsmarketwithchinesedomesticholidaysapproachingitiscrucialtobevigilantagainsttheamplificationofpreciousmetalsvolatilitycausedbyunexpectedeventsduringtheholidaysitisexpectedthattheusconsumerspendingandpcepersonalconsumptionexpendituresmaystillshowsomeresiliencesupportingtheimprovementofmarketriskappetitehoweverduetothereneweduncertaintyintheeconomicandtradeoutlookpreciousmetalsmayexperiencewiderangefluctuationsbeforeandaftertheholidaysthenumberofinitialjoblessclaimsintheusunexpectedlyroseto240000higherthantheexpected230000theusgdpinthefirstquarterof2025wasconfirmedtohaveshrunkby02thefederalappellatecourthasreinstatedpresidenttrumpsmostcomprehensivetariffsthesuspensionofthetariffhaltingmeasurehasbeenpostponedwiththeeconomicfundamentalsnotbeingstrongyetthegoldpricehasrebounded 5月30日，黄金上涨07至7718元克。 贵金属多空要素交织，国内节假日临近，警惕节假日突发事件导致贵金属波动放大。预计美国消费支出及pce或仍呈现一定韧性，支撑市场风险偏好改善，但由于经贸前瞻不确定性再起，贵金属节假日前后或宽幅震荡。数据方面，美国初请失业金人数意外升至24万，高于预期的23万。2025年一季度美国gdp确认收缩02。联邦上诉法院恢复了总统特朗普的最全面关税。 图表3：therecenttrendofgold 黄金价格近期处于宽幅震荡 图表4：530goldincreasedby075月30日，黄金上涨07 sourceifindciticfuturessourceifindciticfutures 5 122pvc onmay30pvcincreasedby06to4764yuanton pvcfacesapessimisticsupplydemandoutlookwithcoststrendingdownwardskeepingdownwardpressureonthefuturesmarket macrolevelfluctuationsshowthattrumpstariffpolicieshaveincreasedvolatilitywiththeuscourtssuspensionofsometrumperatariffsandsubsequentappealsintroducinguncertaintythoughmarketsentimenthasmarginallyimprovedmicrolevelfundamentalsindicatetha